Rural
15 March, 2025
Agribusiness insights into 2025 start
THE BENDIGO Bank Agribusiness’s latest Monthly Commodity Insights report from February flags a strong start for Australian agricultural markets in 2025.
Winter crop harvest has exceeded expectations, with the focus now shifting to demand dynamics. Cattle markets are also expected to see some upside amidst strong export demand, particularly from the US. Tightening global supply will continue to support dairy prices over the coming months.
Almond producers are gearing up for a big season with a strong crop and favourable pricing forecast. However, a late wet season and flood events across Far North Queensland are impacting fruit supply, in part due to significant infrastructure damage across the region. Global factors remain the key focal point, with US tariffs and the potential for retaliatory trade measures an issue that remains keenly watched.
Bendigo Bank Agribusiness Senior Manager Industry Affairs, Neil Burgess, said winter crop harvest generally exceeded expectations.
“WA and NSW delivered more than 70 per cent of total production, balancing big drops in South Australia and Victoria due to dry conditions,” Mr Burgess said. “The domestic wheat market remains largely rangebound, so for now, the focus is on export demand. Tight ending stocks should support barley prices, however growing uncertainty in global grain markets is set to drive ongoing price volatility in the coming months,” he said.
“Cattle prices could see upside, with Australia recently overtaking Canada to become the largest supplier of imported beef to the US. Barring any further supply chain issues from wet weather in Queensland and further processing bottlenecks, exports are likely to rise due to strong ongoing demand from the US and rising availability of local supply.”
Dairy also looks to be a bright spot with tightening global supply continuing to support global dairy prices in the coming months, Mr Burgess observed.
“However, concerns remain with local production beginning to falter, putting pressure on processors to lift farmgate prices as dry conditions spread in southern dairy production regions,” he said.
“Lamb prices have eased as we enter 2025, after peaking just prior to the Christmas break with the lamb market gaining support from continued high processing rates, although strong supply of lambs and dry conditions in key growing areas will limit upside,” Mr Burgess concluded.
